Kozora: Reflecting on the Steelers' 2025 Season: What I Got Right and Wrong
A Year of Mixed Predictions: A Look Back at the Steelers' 2025 Season
As the 2025 NFL season draws to a close, it's time to take a step back and evaluate my predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Every year, I put my own Steelers predictions to the test, and this year was no different. Revisiting two articles I wrote earlier in the year, my "2025 stat predictions" and "10 Things I Think About The 2025 Steelers," I can see what proved true and what fell short. As usual, there's a mix of both.
What I Got Right
"OT Troy Fautanu Will Be Worth The Wait": I correctly predicted that Fautanu would shine in his sophomore year, overcoming a lost rookie season due to knee injuries. He emerged as an excellent pass protector and serviceable run blocker, solidifying his position as a future anchor of the offensive line. Pittsburgh's front-five picks have largely been a success, a testament to GM Omar Khan's strategy.
"No Clear No. 2 Will Emerge": I was skeptical about a breakout No. 2 receiver, especially in Arthur Smith's offense. My prediction proved correct as none emerged, and the Steelers entered the offseason with uncertainty after feeling the pain of not having a reliable receiver opposite DK Metcalf. This was particularly evident during Metcalf's suspension in Week 17.
"End Of Season Slate Will Be Hard – But More Manageable Than 2024": I correctly assessed that the Steelers' end-of-season schedule, featuring Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, Cleveland, and Baltimore again, would be challenging but more manageable than the previous year. The Steelers won four of their final five games, including a significant upset over the Lions and a Week 18 victory over the Ravens, securing the division.
"DK Metcalf Will Be The A.J. Brown Of Arthur Smith’s Offense": While this prediction could have gone either way, I correctly guessed that Metcalf's numbers would be similar to A.J. Brown's in 2020, with a 72-reception, 1,006-yard, and seven-touchdown season over 17 games. Metcalf's suspension affected his final stats, but he still performed well.
What I Got Wrong
"Derrick Harmon Will Need Time To Catch Moving Train": I underestimated Harmon's immediate impact, especially after missing a couple of weeks due to an MCL sprain. Harmon made an immediate difference against the run and, despite needing improvement in his pass rush, enjoyed a solid rookie season without a clear learning curve.
"Defensive Scheme Will Feel Different": While there were changes, the defensive scheme remained largely the same. The Steelers blitzed more, but the overall strategy didn't evolve significantly. The hope of a man-heavy defense faded after a Thursday night loss to the Bengals, and the team's approach to T.J. Watt's movement remained unchanged.
"Payton Wilson Breaks Out": I was confident that Wilson would find his stride, but two years later, he's still struggling. Wilson needs to become an every-down player and a base-package player, but he's been replaced by other players in run downs. A new coaching staff and reinforcements on the defensive line might help, but Wilson hasn't broken out yet.
"Lack Of O-Line Depth Will Become Apparent": I was proven wrong on this one. The Steelers' offensive line depth was a concern, but Spencer Anderson thrived as a sixth offensive lineman, and Dylan Cook showed potential after replacing an injured Broderick Jones. The team's backups, however, suffered season-ending injuries, highlighting the need for depth.
"Steelers Finally Get Over The Playoff Hump": I predicted that the Steelers would win 10 games, make the Wild Card, and win a playoff game. Instead, they won 10 games but didn't advance beyond the Wild Card round. The playoff win drought continues, and the Steelers will need to break it in 2026 to avoid a double-digit streak.
Kaleb Johnson/Kenneth Gainwell Season Numbers: I incorrectly predicted that Kaleb Johnson would have a strong early-season impact and that Gainwell would eventually get his chance. Johnson finished with just 28 carries, 69 yards, and zero scores, while Gainwell had a career year. My stats didn't account for Gainwell's success, and I underestimated his early-season impact.
Jonnu Smith’s Yards Per Reception (11.1): I didn't expect Jonnu Smith to perform as poorly as he did, with a 5.8 yards reception average. Smith had a slow season, catching the ball decently but doing little with it. This was one of the worst seasons in tight end history.
T.J. Watt 17.5 sacks + Jalen Ramsey 5 INTs: I overestimated Watt's performance, predicting 17.5 sacks. He finished with fewer sacks, and Ramsey had just one interception, falling short of my prediction.
Looking Ahead
While I got some things right, there were also significant misses. The Steelers' playoff win drought continues, and the team will need to address certain areas to improve in the future. As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts and predictions for the 2026 season in the comments.
